Anonymous 2017-10-15 19:40:23 No. 10
Let's talk about AI. I really dislike the term AI, because I think it carries a certain connotation with it that isn't necessarily true.
I'm not very knowledgable about the current state of AI, but I often see people on HN saying that we will have GAI in 5-10 years, and I just don't see it happening. Firstly, what I see of AI now doesn't seem to display any intelligence. It's certainly complex software, but it feels like current systems are just doing pattern recognition.
Second, I don't think that silicon-based computers are capable of producing enough processing power. Moore's law is drawing to a close, and we can only squeeze so much more power out of systems with optimization. Perhaps alternative methods of computing will see advances in the next decade that will increase processing power by a few orders of magnitude, but I think such predictions are difficult to make.
This is ignoring philisophical questions. I think that it is entirely possible that something like a soul is required for Intelligence, in which case it may never be possible for a software to display intelligence.
In summary, I think that AI systems are accomplishing some very complex tasks, but I feel that the leap from today's state-of-the-art to GAI is to large to be accomplished in our lifetime. I'm very interested to see how these complex systems can be used to make software development better.